The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024–2033, a collaborative publication celebrating its 20th anniversary this year, represents a worldwide resource for medium-term agricultural commodities market forecasts. The report has been analyzing trends in the supply and demand for agricultural commodities for the past 20 years, projecting changes in the status of production and consumption, and evaluating the changes in the patterns of international agricultural trade.
As we move further into the 2020s, and over the next ten years, it is expected that total consumption from agriculture and fisheries (as food, feed, fuel, and other industrial raw materials) will increase by 1.1 percent annually over the next decade, with low- and middle-income nations expected to account for nearly all of the new consumption.
Based on the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 in this blog, we take a closer look at the projected trends in fish production, consumption, and pricing, as well as the key factors influencing these changes.
“The Outlook confirms the need to implement strategies that bridge productivity gaps in low- and middle-income countries to increase domestic production and boost farmers’ incomes,” said FAO Director-General QU Dongyu.
Rising Global Consumption
According to the previously mentioned Agricultural Outlook, global consumption is projected to increase in the coming years. Though this increase will happen at a slower pace compared to the previous decade, the fact that by 2033, 90% of aquaculture production will be dedicated to human consumption, with fish available for human consumption projected to increase by 21 million tonnes, reaching a total of 186 million tonnes, shows how important it will be in ensuring food security.
Speaking geographically, Asia will be the primary driver of this growth, accounting for 77% of the global increase in consumption, while Africa and the Americas will experience more modest growth. Notably, low- and middle-income countries will contribute to 95% of this increase, underscoring the importance of fish in their diets.
Aquaculture will play an increasingly significant role in meeting global fish demand, with 60% available for human consumption projected to come from aquaculture by 2033. Non-food uses will primarily involve fishmeal and fish oil, essential components in aquaculture feeds. By 2033, 83% of fishmeal and 70% of fish oil will be used in aquaculture feeds, highlighting the sector’s reliance on these resources. This shift towards aquaculture underscores the industry’s growing importance in meeting the nutritional needs of a growing global population.
Price Trends
Fish product prices, including those for aquaculture, capture fisheries, traded food, fishmeal, and oil, are expected to decline in real terms over the next decade. Fish oil is anticipated to see the most significant drop, with a projected decline of 18%. The FAO Fish Price Index indicates that international aquaculture prices were 1.5% lower in 2023 compared to 2022, following a substantial 19% rise in 2022.
After that, in 2023, prices for aquaculture products fell due to reduced inflationary pressures and recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. In the future, prices are expected to continue decreasing in both nominal and real terms until 2025-2027, after which they are projected to grow slowly.
Production Projections
Global fish production is expected to rise from 185 million tonnes (Mt) to 206 Mt by 2033, reflecting a 12% increase over the next decade. This marks a deceleration in growth compared to the previous decade’s 21% increase. The pace of growth is expected to be slower primarily due to factors such as slower productivity gains, stricter environmental regulations, and a reduction in the availability of optimal production sites. Significant productivity gaps are predicted to exist despite anticipated gains in productivity, especially in the least productive nations of Asia and Africa. This will put a strain on agricultural incomes and food security and raise the need for food imports for these nations. The main causes of differences in agricultural productivity continue to be technological limitations, restricted input use, and climate circumstances.
Despite these challenges, innovative projects like INCiTiS-FOOD are making a significant impact in overcoming space limitations for food production. By developing sustainable and efficient methods like aquaponics and hydroponics to produce food in limited spaces, INCiTiS-FOOD is helping to drive aquaculture growth.
All in all, aquaculture will remain the main driver of growth, projected to account for 55% of global fish production by 2033. It is anticipated to reach 112 Mt by 2033, representing a 20% increase from the base period, although this growth is significantly slower than the 52% increase experienced in the previous decade.
Regional Insights
While aquaculture continues to expand globally, in the next decade it is expected that Europe and Africa will contribute only 3% each to global aquaculture production. Despite this modest share, both regions face unique challenges and opportunities in the coming years.
One of the most pressing issues for the capture fisheries sector is the impact of climate change. In 2023, sea surface temperatures reached record highs, a trend expected to persist and potentially worsen. These rising temperatures are set to negatively impact global capture fisheries production, though the effects will not be uniformly distributed across regions. Some areas might experience more severe declines in stocks, while others could see changes in species composition, migration patterns, and overall ecosystem dynamics.
For regions like Africa, which have significant coastal communities relying on fisheries for their livelihoods, these changes could present serious economic and food security challenges. As such, adaptation strategies and innovative solutions, such as those employed by projects like INCiTiS-FOOD, will be critical in mitigating these impacts and ensuring sustainable fish production in the face of a changing climate.
Trade Trends: Navigating a Global Market
The global trade of aquatic products is set to grow significantly over the next decade, driven by increased consumption, advances in storage and transportation, and liberalisation policies that facilitate international exchange. By 2033, it is projected that approximately 35% of aquaculture production will be traded internationally, with 31% excluding intra-EU trade. This extensive movement of goods underscores the complexity of modern supply chains, where products often cross multiple national boundaries before reaching consumers.
Export Trends
World exports for human consumption are expected to reach 45 million tonnes (Mt) by 2033, marking a 4.0% increase from the base period. This slower growth rate reflects the high levels of trade during the base period (2021-2023) and the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, which temporarily disrupted global trade flows. Despite the lower growth rate, the sheer volume of exports underscores the critical role of international markets in meeting global fish demand.
Import Trends
On the import side, the European Union is projected to remain one of the leading importers, while Africa is expected to see a substantial 38% increase in fish imports. This trend highlights the pressing need to boost local production capabilities to reduce reliance on external sources. Initiatives focused on enhancing food security in Africa, such as the INCiTiS-FOOD project, are therefore crucial. Central to our efforts is the use of aquaponics—a sustainable farming technique that integrates fish farming (aquaculture) with soilless plant cultivation (hydroponics) in a closed-loop system. This method allows for the efficient and sustainable production of both fish and fresh vegetables, ensuring a more resilient and self-sufficient food supply.
Fishmeal and Fish Oil Trade
The trade of fishmeal and fish oil, essential components of aquaculture feeds, is also set to grow.
Fishmeal exports are projected to increase slightly by 4.0%, reaching 3.6 Mt by 2033, with the European Union as a significant exporter in this market.
Fish oil exports are expected to see a more substantial increase, rising by 12% to 1.1 Mt by 2033. Norway and the European Union will lead in oil imports, with shares of 24% and 22%, respectively. These trends reflect the ongoing importance of fishmeal and fish oil in supporting the aquaculture sector’s growth, particularly as the demand for sustainable and efficient feed options continues to rise.
Future Challenges and Opportunities
As we look ahead, the global fish industry faces a complex landscape of challenges and opportunities, particularly in the context of climate change and evolving sustainability efforts.
Climate Change
The year 2023 marked the hottest on record, and the trend of rising temperatures is expected to continue. This warming will likely reduce the overall potential for fisheries catches and lead to shifts in marine resources. The increasing frequency of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, cyclones, and floods, will also impact aquaculture, creating unpredictable and rapid changes that the industry must adapt to. Additionally, global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may bring about short-term disruptions in aquaculture operations, potentially altering production levels and practices.
FAO Blue Transformation
In response to these challenges, the FAO’s Blue Transformation initiative aims to improve the sustainable management of aquatic resources and address global hunger through more efficient, resilient, and inclusive aquaculture. This ambitious initiative focuses on systemic changes, technological innovation, and private-sector engagement as key drivers for achieving sustainable development goals by 2030 and beyond.
Uncertainty Factors
Despite these forward-looking efforts, significant uncertainties remain. The effectiveness of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies is difficult to predict, particularly in how they will impact global fish production. Additionally, regulatory and economic changes, especially in major production countries like China and Norway, introduce further unpredictability into future projections.
In conclusion, while the future of fish production faces significant challenges, it also offers valuable opportunities for innovation and sustainable growth. By supporting initiatives like INCiTiS-FOOD, which promotes sustainable food production, and adopting adaptive strategies such as aquaponics, the global industry can effectively navigate these uncertainties and maintain its vital role in ensuring global food security.
Information and data from the Outlook, including the main conclusions, is freely accessible at: www.agri-outlook.org.
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